Canada Has Already Escaped Gravity

LNG’s Momentum Shows No Signs of Slowing

Over the last few weeks, a familiar argument has been percolating through the media and social-media ecosystem: the United States is gravity, and Canada cannot escape it. Carney may be trying, but corporations are already saying the same thing in softer language. Canada is valuable because it sits next to the United States. Diversification will not work. The U.S. market is too large. The old model is too entrenched. Yada, yada, and more yada.

First, the premise is wrong.

Canada is not trying to vanish from the United States, and the United States is not going to vanish from Canada. Is there any serious reason for Canada to say it wants U.S. trade to fall to zero? Is that what this is? No. The relationship is out of balance because the politics around the relationship has moved out of the place where it used to sit. That requires adjustment. And the adjustment Canada has already begun is showing results.

I do not care, not one bit, if total merchandise trade with the United States drops down to C$1 trillion in 2026, or even climbs back to C$1.079 trillion. That is not the number Canada should obsess over.