Trade in Surplus?

Numbers Are Jumping. The Direction Is Good. It Can Get Better.

As expected, the numbers are starting to jump around.

GDP growth came in soft for the recent quarter. Then came a strong jobs report that surprised almost everyone. Now Canada has posted a trade surplus.

The jobs report was good. The trade surplus was more complicated. Not exactly good. Not exactly bad. It showed movement, but it also showed how much work is still ahead.

That is where we need to be careful.

It is very easy to get lost in the data explosion. One number comes in soft. Another comes in strong. A third looks good on the surface but carries weakness underneath. If we chase every number like it is the whole story, we will lose the plot.

So let us not do that.

The overall direction is better than it was. But the numbers still show that Canada has a lot more work to do.

At the end of the day, Canada wants one thing above all: the U.S. share of Canadian exports must keep coming down, percentage point by percentage point. That is the structural shift. That is the work.

And that is why the April number matters.

The U.S. share of Canadian exports actually increased from January to April this year, rising from 67.9% to 69.2%. That does not erase the progress Canada has made. But it does show the danger. Supply chains are starting to adjust to the tariff regime. And we know what these people will do once the system adjusts.

They will move the goalposts again.