Shankar, I can appreciate the argument, but it breaks my heart that our prospects depend on fossil fuel expansion which damages the environment. How I wish we could get away from that dependence and shift the equation to renewables.
No. We both are in the same ship. Do I look like some one who likes hydrocarbons? No. But right now the situation demands it. Can ukraine not bomb the Russian refineries because there will be emissions. There is a monster hunting their kids. Sometimes, we have to do what is needed to protect our home. We get safe and then we do what needs to be done for the future.
Had we been adding value and driving value creation for the past 50 years instead just extraction of what we’re lucky to live on top of, we would be in a much different place now. Fear an failure of imagination has been our stock and trade for over 50 years. So start with what we have, but always with an eye to what we can do with that revenue to get to the next level
Let's just recall the Maslow pyramid: the 1st tranche (basic human needs such as lodging, feeding the people,...) has to be assessed before moving up to higher levels. In this case by promoting usage of more environmental friendly alternatives...
At this time, many regions/countries have to deal with supplying their population with affordable energy sources. For instance, I've managed energy projects in Asia the past few years and believe me people can barely afford to have enough LPG products - butane, propane, methane,... - to even cook their food. That's the case for India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Philippines,...
That drives the imperative to seek any source of energy to fulfill this 1st tranche. So the demand for renewables will pick up (in these countries) when they've achieved some level of economic development. But, as far as Africa and Asia are concerned, they will rely on hydrocarbons for many years to come.
We need our sovereignty, both economic and political in order to pursue environmental goals. The US is on the opposite track for environmental issues so I believe our sovereignty must be our first priority in order to eventually be able to concentrate on many goals. The entire world is having to adapt - Canada certainly more than most given our proximity...
As Herman Kahn taught in the 1970s, no resource ever runs out. It just becomes more expensive. But yes, someday humanity will move beyond fossil fuels. Still, the only fuel whose use is now in decline is biomass, and that only started in this century. (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy)
Some things like airplanes will always require jet fuel. They can’t be made electric because it would the planes too heavy. All the more reason not to waste what we have.
By the way, interesting side note. Canola can be converted into jet fuel. It is one of the most credible feedstocks for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), chemically identical to conventional jet fuel, yet with up to 90% lower life-cycle emissions. It's a drop-in fuel, usable in current engines, aircraft and refuelling systems with no modifications. The US Air force flies on it. Lufthansa uses it regularly, and NATO is preparing to deploy it.
Alberta has one of the best carbon capture networks in North America.
Guess what we have a lot of in SK? Canola.
And it can be stored and we need to be able to store it. New high-oil varieties can grow on Class 4 marginal lands in AB or SK that aren't used currently for food crops, no need to use premium farmlands for storage.
This should be a hard reset for us considering we're ramping up our fighter jet capacity and others, particularly in the North. At our most northern base, CFS Alert, it takes 7 litres of fuel to deliver just one usable litre. In a crisis that is a logistics chokepoint an adversary wouldn't even need to attack, just wait for the fuel supply chain to strain and operations slow down. We can and need to be a global leader in this space, and we need it for our own defence as well.
If anyone is interested the Globe and Mail also did a short article on this, some of my points are from this article - "You can't fly sovereignty on foreign fuel" published August 14, 2025. There's more information online since if you're interested in doing some digging.
Thanks Frau. It’s actually a cool thing to diversify for canola, and reduce dependency on the China market for canola.
I hope Moe proposes this in the major projects office, it would be a nice addition to complement the possible Churchill port build-out, and strategic energy corridor project under Kinew.
Our PM is a pragmatist. Imagine the philosophical internal debates he must have had with himself being a net zero guy, environmentalist (as I am) and move hard on fossil fuels like oil and gas, and LNG. The difference is that ours are one of the cleanest in the world. This matters.
India needs heavy energy as it further industrializes away from dirty coal. Other countries as well. We cannot prevent the rest of the world from using fossil fuels, so the next best thing is to use our strongest resource assets, as responsibly as we can, and provide that energy to those emerging economies. We grow our economy away from the USA, gain strength, and also in parallel grow our clean energy transition where possible, so that we can also be a global leader on clean energy initiatives and solutions. In short, we provide both solutions when an emerging country is ready for them. Nuclear, like the CANDU reactors is another way, for like-minded allies.
There is no perfect answer, this is existential for Canada to survive. From that place we can do the important work we need to do as a global leader for democratic values, clean technology, and other important work. We cannot do that work if we do not survive. Hard choices, but necessary.
But … PM Carney is aligning more closely with Europe - he is there right now at the EPC summit to discuss closer defense and economic alignment. And the EU is the region more concerned than any other on climate change and internet regulation. It’s a long game horizon and if Canada builds its economic strength it will be better positioned to help with global climate change and other important issues.
Now build oil pipeline that goes on the East coast and crude export contracts will come from Europe since i) a number of US refineries depend on heavy crude being produced in Alberta and can't be reconfigured easily - which make these dependent on Alberta's heavy oil - but ii) Europe will outbid the US to get that critical heavy oil supplied to it's refineries and secure through long term contracts. That would diversify our export partners...
If I'm right, contrary to light crude, heavy crude oil is looked for since one can produce a much diverse number of products from such heavy oil, namely jet fuel...
Canola can be converted to jet fuel. It's chemically identical to conventional jet fuel, and with 90% lower life-cycle emissions. It's a drop-in fuel, usable in current engines, aircraft and refuelling systems with no modifications. The USA uses it, NATO is adopting it, and Lufthansa uses it regularly. We should be using this in tandem with our push for air defence, our fighter jets, etc. especially in the North where 7 litres of fuel is needed to deliver 1 usable litre.
It can be grown on Class 4 marginalized lands in SK, AB, no need to offset food production lands, and there's lots of room to store it, and sell it to become a global leader in this fuel.
And that means what? That it shouldn't be started? That there's no point? I disagree. A sense of urgency and an urgent goal tends to shorten the "time" horizon.
My target is to move things to next level.before the next election. However hard it is. If Ukraine can develop missiles that powers took decades to build in four years, we can do it too. It is ok to fail, but onkt after giving your everything. Phase 2 kitimat must be pushed as hard as possible. Both private and public.
I am a strong advocate for starting more export of hydrocarbons from both coasts of Canada and doing everything possible to accelerate this development. I agree completely with Shankar on the value of that. But everything involved, from politics to bulldozers, will move far, far more slowly than the chattering class imagines it can.
Well, we have a majority government now. No more dogs and cats discussions in committees obstructing bills from passing. Our budget should have sailed through a month after it was introduced, not six months due to the obstructionist MAGA PP party. Things can move, the structure is there with the DIS, Major projects office, etc. We couldn't test it previously due to the obstructionism going on. Now we can actually measure it by the end of the year.
Shankar, I can appreciate the argument, but it breaks my heart that our prospects depend on fossil fuel expansion which damages the environment. How I wish we could get away from that dependence and shift the equation to renewables.
No. We both are in the same ship. Do I look like some one who likes hydrocarbons? No. But right now the situation demands it. Can ukraine not bomb the Russian refineries because there will be emissions. There is a monster hunting their kids. Sometimes, we have to do what is needed to protect our home. We get safe and then we do what needs to be done for the future.
I would never accuse you of anything, Shankar. ; )
I was simply lamenting that what we have to do to survive as a nation is also a setback for the environment.
I know. I was just sharing with you. It is ok. Good to discuss..
Had we been adding value and driving value creation for the past 50 years instead just extraction of what we’re lucky to live on top of, we would be in a much different place now. Fear an failure of imagination has been our stock and trade for over 50 years. So start with what we have, but always with an eye to what we can do with that revenue to get to the next level
Let's just recall the Maslow pyramid: the 1st tranche (basic human needs such as lodging, feeding the people,...) has to be assessed before moving up to higher levels. In this case by promoting usage of more environmental friendly alternatives...
At this time, many regions/countries have to deal with supplying their population with affordable energy sources. For instance, I've managed energy projects in Asia the past few years and believe me people can barely afford to have enough LPG products - butane, propane, methane,... - to even cook their food. That's the case for India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Philippines,...
That drives the imperative to seek any source of energy to fulfill this 1st tranche. So the demand for renewables will pick up (in these countries) when they've achieved some level of economic development. But, as far as Africa and Asia are concerned, they will rely on hydrocarbons for many years to come.
We need our sovereignty, both economic and political in order to pursue environmental goals. The US is on the opposite track for environmental issues so I believe our sovereignty must be our first priority in order to eventually be able to concentrate on many goals. The entire world is having to adapt - Canada certainly more than most given our proximity...
Natural gas isn’t as bad as oil. I do understand your point, though.
I suggest that you guys read How the World Really Works, by Vaclav Smil. The world will need lots of fossil fuels indefinitely.
fossil fuels are not available indefinitely. Think you meant long time. We can still reduce usage.
As Herman Kahn taught in the 1970s, no resource ever runs out. It just becomes more expensive. But yes, someday humanity will move beyond fossil fuels. Still, the only fuel whose use is now in decline is biomass, and that only started in this century. (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy)
Some things like airplanes will always require jet fuel. They can’t be made electric because it would the planes too heavy. All the more reason not to waste what we have.
By the way, interesting side note. Canola can be converted into jet fuel. It is one of the most credible feedstocks for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), chemically identical to conventional jet fuel, yet with up to 90% lower life-cycle emissions. It's a drop-in fuel, usable in current engines, aircraft and refuelling systems with no modifications. The US Air force flies on it. Lufthansa uses it regularly, and NATO is preparing to deploy it.
Alberta has one of the best carbon capture networks in North America.
Guess what we have a lot of in SK? Canola.
And it can be stored and we need to be able to store it. New high-oil varieties can grow on Class 4 marginal lands in AB or SK that aren't used currently for food crops, no need to use premium farmlands for storage.
This should be a hard reset for us considering we're ramping up our fighter jet capacity and others, particularly in the North. At our most northern base, CFS Alert, it takes 7 litres of fuel to deliver just one usable litre. In a crisis that is a logistics chokepoint an adversary wouldn't even need to attack, just wait for the fuel supply chain to strain and operations slow down. We can and need to be a global leader in this space, and we need it for our own defence as well.
If anyone is interested the Globe and Mail also did a short article on this, some of my points are from this article - "You can't fly sovereignty on foreign fuel" published August 14, 2025. There's more information online since if you're interested in doing some digging.
Wow! Interesting. Thanks for the info.
Thanks Frau. It’s actually a cool thing to diversify for canola, and reduce dependency on the China market for canola.
I hope Moe proposes this in the major projects office, it would be a nice addition to complement the possible Churchill port build-out, and strategic energy corridor project under Kinew.
Thank you Shankar for your insight.
Our PM is a pragmatist. Imagine the philosophical internal debates he must have had with himself being a net zero guy, environmentalist (as I am) and move hard on fossil fuels like oil and gas, and LNG. The difference is that ours are one of the cleanest in the world. This matters.
India needs heavy energy as it further industrializes away from dirty coal. Other countries as well. We cannot prevent the rest of the world from using fossil fuels, so the next best thing is to use our strongest resource assets, as responsibly as we can, and provide that energy to those emerging economies. We grow our economy away from the USA, gain strength, and also in parallel grow our clean energy transition where possible, so that we can also be a global leader on clean energy initiatives and solutions. In short, we provide both solutions when an emerging country is ready for them. Nuclear, like the CANDU reactors is another way, for like-minded allies.
There is no perfect answer, this is existential for Canada to survive. From that place we can do the important work we need to do as a global leader for democratic values, clean technology, and other important work. We cannot do that work if we do not survive. Hard choices, but necessary.
When your house is threatened, don't stand there wringing your hands and saying you wish it were not so. Of course we wish it were not so!
Identify the threat and counter it as best you can with what is available to you.
Otherwise accept defeat...
I can appreciate the argument but,
but.....
But … PM Carney is aligning more closely with Europe - he is there right now at the EPC summit to discuss closer defense and economic alignment. And the EU is the region more concerned than any other on climate change and internet regulation. It’s a long game horizon and if Canada builds its economic strength it will be better positioned to help with global climate change and other important issues.
Set up LNG export hub in the East: great.
Now build oil pipeline that goes on the East coast and crude export contracts will come from Europe since i) a number of US refineries depend on heavy crude being produced in Alberta and can't be reconfigured easily - which make these dependent on Alberta's heavy oil - but ii) Europe will outbid the US to get that critical heavy oil supplied to it's refineries and secure through long term contracts. That would diversify our export partners...
If I'm right, contrary to light crude, heavy crude oil is looked for since one can produce a much diverse number of products from such heavy oil, namely jet fuel...
We can address this from another angle.
We are a major canola grower, and exporter.
Canola can be converted to jet fuel. It's chemically identical to conventional jet fuel, and with 90% lower life-cycle emissions. It's a drop-in fuel, usable in current engines, aircraft and refuelling systems with no modifications. The USA uses it, NATO is adopting it, and Lufthansa uses it regularly. We should be using this in tandem with our push for air defence, our fighter jets, etc. especially in the North where 7 litres of fuel is needed to deliver 1 usable litre.
It can be grown on Class 4 marginalized lands in SK, AB, no need to offset food production lands, and there's lots of room to store it, and sell it to become a global leader in this fuel.
Great. Thanks for your comment
Agree, diversification of trade is always a good strategy.
Two to three years would be highly unlikely for a next phase at Kitmat. Those facilities take a lot of time.
And that means what? That it shouldn't be started? That there's no point? I disagree. A sense of urgency and an urgent goal tends to shorten the "time" horizon.
My target is to move things to next level.before the next election. However hard it is. If Ukraine can develop missiles that powers took decades to build in four years, we can do it too. It is ok to fail, but onkt after giving your everything. Phase 2 kitimat must be pushed as hard as possible. Both private and public.
I am a strong advocate for starting more export of hydrocarbons from both coasts of Canada and doing everything possible to accelerate this development. I agree completely with Shankar on the value of that. But everything involved, from politics to bulldozers, will move far, far more slowly than the chattering class imagines it can.
I am not so sure that things will continue to move slowly. There is actual political will to get things done quickly. It’s a different situation now.
Well, we have a majority government now. No more dogs and cats discussions in committees obstructing bills from passing. Our budget should have sailed through a month after it was introduced, not six months due to the obstructionist MAGA PP party. Things can move, the structure is there with the DIS, Major projects office, etc. We couldn't test it previously due to the obstructionism going on. Now we can actually measure it by the end of the year.