Canada’s submarine choice is not just a procurement decision. It is a strategic pivot toward Germany, NATO’s northern flank, and the long-overdue rebuilding of Canada’s Arctic architecture.
I too, await formal confirmation and I want the building of Churchill to be multifunctional. Once again, you see clearly, Shankar. (I still hope we buy some from S. Korea and run them along our Pacific coast.)
Thank you Shankar, I can tell you are happy with this, if indeed it's Germany, and Norway. I had been leaning towards SK initially, but a million things happened the past month and my thinking shifted towards Germany.
I am quite curious if Manitoba will announce major project plans soon for the Churchill port and corridor, investment/proponent(s). Carney said he wants LNG out of Churchill by 2030. That would be a miracle, but they have moved lightening fast on these procurements recently. A sub decision in this time frame is unheard of for us. Well done Carney and team!
A multi-purpose port at Churchill for Arctic defence and surveillance plus LNG export makes the most sense to me. I sure hope it happens - this is no time for half measures.
Completely agree Kevin, thanks for your comment, and this announcement just before NATO meetings this week is strategic. I am very interested to see how the Investment Summit this September, our first, will also catalyze major projects, and other initiatives. Win-win for us here in Canada. What a year so far, feels like 2 years have passed, not six months!!
As always, Tracy*numquam cede, you post a succinct, informed comment. In both WWs 1 and 2, in eras when the British Empire, the closest the world has come to world government and a loyalty inducing, enthusism generating force, Canadians performed wonders economically, militarily, at sea, financially, and logistically. All with enthusiastic citizen's support. (During the First World War- with only printed media and telegrams as our major technologies). In 2026, Canada is, de facto, at war with the USA. It might soon turn hot. Invasion triggers that. Meantime, PM Carney has gotten his Cabinet hussling, with growing support from mature Canadians. Churchill IS a great place to show what we can do under pressure and time constraints. Only... This time we have quislings agitating actively with our close enemy. We REALLY have to take out Harper, Moe, and Smith, their funders, their benefactors, and their adherents. Canadians are a nice, kind people. Those who support fascists, are NOT Canadian. We cannot, must not, be benign to our internal traitors. Not in wartime.
Things are finally moving! I have been waiting my entire adult life for Canada to wake up to its own potential. Now things are happening and it’s almost too good to be true.
Missy's, it IS almost too good to be true that our nation's true potential is finally starting to be apparent. It might also be too late, with the USA now, in 2026, having Canadian submission as part of their Donroe Doctrine.
What about the political unrest that Germany is experiencing with their AfD FAR RIGHT…will this pose a problem for Canada in the future?? We all know how the demented POSHIT treats contracts & treaties, will the AfD be the same if they’re in power??
Germany can only form coalition governments. Afd will not get into power. They can stop progress if they get more seats. But they cannot take the Chancellors office.
I don’t know very much about German politics, other than that they are supportive of their manufacturing industries. I look forward to more of your insightful reports on this.
I was glad to see Churchill is starting to get mentioned again. If people thought that picking a submarine or a fighter jet was difficult, they haven’t even begun to imagine how difficult just getting building materials to Churchill in the quantities needed. The lion’s share will have to come by boat and barge from Montreal or Halifax, during the brief summer months when the Bay is reasonably ice free in that region. The rail line is narrow gauge and is limited in cargo weight because it is partially built on permafrost. This will be an engineering and construction challenge to rival building the St. Lawrence Seaway.
As for the submarines that will need a pen and repair facilities, I hope that the NDHQ long term planners are considering a secondary contract with Hanwa for a handful of boats for West Coast operations. While the planners will cry about manpower and parallel supply chains, we will need their capacity to help project force in support of our allies around the Pacific. With LNG export terminal being added to the northern BC coast, we will need additional boats past the initial dozen to patrol that part of the North Pacific. We are also looking at creating a permanent presence in our Arctic waters, so if you have one boat dedicated to training in each region, one in for maintenance and crew leave, that leaves only 2 boats to actually go out on patrol, assuming a 4-4-4 defence.
That is a pathetically small force to watch the traffic, let alone interdict any invaders. People do not realize just how vast an area the RCN is being asked to manage. We are now playing with the ‘big boys’ on the block.
Unfortunately Canada was not considered for AUKUS pillar one. The technological and industrial capability this brings to Australia is unmatched. Diesel submarines are slow and hide in chokepoints and waterways. You cannot patrol with them at anything beyond a snail’s pace. SSN’s are apex predators that are perfectly suited for hunting across vast swathes of ocean.
It is a good thing we weren’t. Australians are pissed off. All the money spent and still received nothing and it was just announced they will not be receiving new but rather used equipment as there is no timeline re new. All that money spent …. all that time waiting … and not getting what they purchased.
Agreed they should drop the three Virginia subs (which will no doubt be delayed) in exchange for a nice discount and extra training rotations; then they should build three more AUKUS subs domestically. The treaty was signed four years ago and will take decades. Australia’s boats will probably be commissioned in the 2040’s. I think a lot of the public believes Australia is paying a huge amount of money for nuclear submarines. That is a fraction of what they bought into. It’s top-secret metallurgical technologies, micron-level precision engineering, 90 years of nuclear reactor design, quantum navigation, advanced AI and dozens of other capabilities that are not available to other countries at any price. Australia won’t just own the submarines; they will have all of those industries and educational partnerships at a local level. It was an opportunity no government could refuse. The submarines will be fleet-wrecking monsters, but the technology transfer is far more important.
I'm very interested in seeing where Australia goes at this point. Does a network effect start working if there are lots of 212CDs in operation? Nations buy them because other nations buy them. I would have argued that there was a case for splitting the CPSP in 2 as the Atlantic and Pacific use cases seem to be so different. The substack pundits from Australia seem to be upset that all the investment so far has been in bases for the US submarines with no motion to the obvious and important benefits you mentioned. If China is going to be testing ballistic missiles in the neighborhood, it must feel very chilling in Australia to be without at least something to deploy underwater other than the US. Just coming up to speed on this, so would be happy to be educated.
Thanks for asking Kary. Here’s some info. I hope it’s helpful.
Modern nuclear submarines are built by the five permanent UN security council members only. The Brits and the Americans are between one and two generations ahead of the others. These are some of the most complicated machines on earth. The development of them cost trillions of dollars and required millions of engineering hours across every field of science. They are starting to assist other countries develop these skills, but even then it takes 25 to 50 years. It literally begins with building the engineering programs at the universities because you will need a minimum of 10,000 specialized graduates.
Diesel electric subs are great tools if you can build or buy them. They are small, typically between 2-3.5k tons. Endurance is ~6 weeks. They are primarily used as ambush weapons. They hide, they loiter in choke points and patrol commercial waterways. This is why the German 212 is perfect for the small Baltic sea. They are slow. Depending on sub, they can patrol quietly at 4-8 knots. They can turn on the loud diesel engines to temporarily sprint to 20 knots, but then the sub will need to snorkel for oxygen. A tiny submarine snorkel can be detected from hundreds of miles away. This makes them incredibly vulnerable but also defeats half the purpose. It’s not just the damage you can do to your opponent, it’s about keeping them guessing where your submarines are.
The AUKUS subs Australia will be building (not buying!!) will be the most dangerous naval platform on earth. At 10k tons, they are 4x larger than German 212’s. Endurance is unlimited; food and crew is usually refreshed at 90 days, but has been double that in emergencies. These boats can perpetually travel at 35 knots. They never refuel, they never need to surface. They can dive substantially deeper, which allows them to play with multiple thermoclines. This gives them tremendous advantages in stealth. They will be able to maintain perfect navigation without GPS, unlike other subs which perpetually drift until they reconnect. They have incredible reconnaissance technologies including the ability to intercept and decrypt cellular calls and they can deploy UUV’s to tap underwater fiber optic cables. Their sonar capabilities extend 4-5x other subs. A single boat carries both VLS and a huge number of heavyweight spearfish torpedoes. Two of these subs will wreck an enemy fleet and because they are much faster, they can circle like a shark or continuously sprint ahead and reengage.
The subs will be modern marvels, but the miracle is Australia building them.
When I was a small child, my uncle was stationed in Churchill. There wasn’t much up there at the time aside from Inuit settlements and military; all these years later were talking about a substantial port. Pretty amazing. Thanks for this piece Shankar. I know South Korea was in the mix for this contract, but it makes good sense to standardize with other NATO nations.
I really, really would love to be part of planning use and development of Churchill. The most exciting time in my career was working on infrastructure and logistics planning for the Naval Station Norfolk. The last couple of times I visited I saw projects we worked on being built. Intermodal, piers, ports (dredging to new depths). Just a huge puzzle and I love very little more that I love a puzzle.
I am mightily relieved.
yea. tell me about it. I am still waiting to hear the press meet at 5pm
I think you can rest easy. Murray’s always got his finger on all the pulses.
Apparently you blocked me?
Looking forward to the rest of your analysis. Especially wrt trade offs vs the competing bid. “True North strong and free “ just got a backbone.
I havs to hear him say it. Then i will be at peace to run the report. Gosh. I cant wait.
I too, await formal confirmation and I want the building of Churchill to be multifunctional. Once again, you see clearly, Shankar. (I still hope we buy some from S. Korea and run them along our Pacific coast.)
As a serious gardener in Nova Scotia, we can't have two types of subs. Has to be standardized to one source. Cheers!
Thank you Shankar, I can tell you are happy with this, if indeed it's Germany, and Norway. I had been leaning towards SK initially, but a million things happened the past month and my thinking shifted towards Germany.
I am quite curious if Manitoba will announce major project plans soon for the Churchill port and corridor, investment/proponent(s). Carney said he wants LNG out of Churchill by 2030. That would be a miracle, but they have moved lightening fast on these procurements recently. A sub decision in this time frame is unheard of for us. Well done Carney and team!
A multi-purpose port at Churchill for Arctic defence and surveillance plus LNG export makes the most sense to me. I sure hope it happens - this is no time for half measures.
Completely agree Kevin, thanks for your comment, and this announcement just before NATO meetings this week is strategic. I am very interested to see how the Investment Summit this September, our first, will also catalyze major projects, and other initiatives. Win-win for us here in Canada. What a year so far, feels like 2 years have passed, not six months!!
As always, Tracy*numquam cede, you post a succinct, informed comment. In both WWs 1 and 2, in eras when the British Empire, the closest the world has come to world government and a loyalty inducing, enthusism generating force, Canadians performed wonders economically, militarily, at sea, financially, and logistically. All with enthusiastic citizen's support. (During the First World War- with only printed media and telegrams as our major technologies). In 2026, Canada is, de facto, at war with the USA. It might soon turn hot. Invasion triggers that. Meantime, PM Carney has gotten his Cabinet hussling, with growing support from mature Canadians. Churchill IS a great place to show what we can do under pressure and time constraints. Only... This time we have quislings agitating actively with our close enemy. We REALLY have to take out Harper, Moe, and Smith, their funders, their benefactors, and their adherents. Canadians are a nice, kind people. Those who support fascists, are NOT Canadian. We cannot, must not, be benign to our internal traitors. Not in wartime.
Thank you David, we agree on much.
I haven’t been hearing much from Moe lately but he tends to follow Smith. That’s a problem. Harper right now is a hard one. A puppet master.
Poilievre, Jivani are two I’m concerned about right now. Hoekstra working with them and others.
And traitors like Tamara Lich and that separatist Alberta group that have been working with Trump and MAGA for at least 4.5 years.
Mainstream media as usual beyond useless.
This will potentially get ugly in southern Alberta. By the border. The dems need to win the midterms decisively.
For now I’d rather have our traitors here to watch them. Keep your friends close and your enemies closer. And later expel them all or lay charges.
Ummm... embarrassed... between world government and loyalty inducing... "and" should be "WAS".
Things are finally moving! I have been waiting my entire adult life for Canada to wake up to its own potential. Now things are happening and it’s almost too good to be true.
Missy's, it IS almost too good to be true that our nation's true potential is finally starting to be apparent. It might also be too late, with the USA now, in 2026, having Canadian submission as part of their Donroe Doctrine.
I am extremely pleased with PM Carney's decision! Nice post, thank you.
What about the political unrest that Germany is experiencing with their AfD FAR RIGHT…will this pose a problem for Canada in the future?? We all know how the demented POSHIT treats contracts & treaties, will the AfD be the same if they’re in power??
Germany can only form coalition governments. Afd will not get into power. They can stop progress if they get more seats. But they cannot take the Chancellors office.
I don’t know very much about German politics, other than that they are supportive of their manufacturing industries. I look forward to more of your insightful reports on this.
I was glad to see Churchill is starting to get mentioned again. If people thought that picking a submarine or a fighter jet was difficult, they haven’t even begun to imagine how difficult just getting building materials to Churchill in the quantities needed. The lion’s share will have to come by boat and barge from Montreal or Halifax, during the brief summer months when the Bay is reasonably ice free in that region. The rail line is narrow gauge and is limited in cargo weight because it is partially built on permafrost. This will be an engineering and construction challenge to rival building the St. Lawrence Seaway.
As for the submarines that will need a pen and repair facilities, I hope that the NDHQ long term planners are considering a secondary contract with Hanwa for a handful of boats for West Coast operations. While the planners will cry about manpower and parallel supply chains, we will need their capacity to help project force in support of our allies around the Pacific. With LNG export terminal being added to the northern BC coast, we will need additional boats past the initial dozen to patrol that part of the North Pacific. We are also looking at creating a permanent presence in our Arctic waters, so if you have one boat dedicated to training in each region, one in for maintenance and crew leave, that leaves only 2 boats to actually go out on patrol, assuming a 4-4-4 defence.
That is a pathetically small force to watch the traffic, let alone interdict any invaders. People do not realize just how vast an area the RCN is being asked to manage. We are now playing with the ‘big boys’ on the block.
Nous nous souviendrons.
We are Canadian.
Great. As I often argued in this newsletter, Germany makes more sense...
Now, I do hope that Canada doesn't fall in a "kind of AUKUS" deal proposed by the US/UK as Australia is complaining more and more openly... a joke !
Unfortunately Canada was not considered for AUKUS pillar one. The technological and industrial capability this brings to Australia is unmatched. Diesel submarines are slow and hide in chokepoints and waterways. You cannot patrol with them at anything beyond a snail’s pace. SSN’s are apex predators that are perfectly suited for hunting across vast swathes of ocean.
It is a good thing we weren’t. Australians are pissed off. All the money spent and still received nothing and it was just announced they will not be receiving new but rather used equipment as there is no timeline re new. All that money spent …. all that time waiting … and not getting what they purchased.
Agreed they should drop the three Virginia subs (which will no doubt be delayed) in exchange for a nice discount and extra training rotations; then they should build three more AUKUS subs domestically. The treaty was signed four years ago and will take decades. Australia’s boats will probably be commissioned in the 2040’s. I think a lot of the public believes Australia is paying a huge amount of money for nuclear submarines. That is a fraction of what they bought into. It’s top-secret metallurgical technologies, micron-level precision engineering, 90 years of nuclear reactor design, quantum navigation, advanced AI and dozens of other capabilities that are not available to other countries at any price. Australia won’t just own the submarines; they will have all of those industries and educational partnerships at a local level. It was an opportunity no government could refuse. The submarines will be fleet-wrecking monsters, but the technology transfer is far more important.
I'm very interested in seeing where Australia goes at this point. Does a network effect start working if there are lots of 212CDs in operation? Nations buy them because other nations buy them. I would have argued that there was a case for splitting the CPSP in 2 as the Atlantic and Pacific use cases seem to be so different. The substack pundits from Australia seem to be upset that all the investment so far has been in bases for the US submarines with no motion to the obvious and important benefits you mentioned. If China is going to be testing ballistic missiles in the neighborhood, it must feel very chilling in Australia to be without at least something to deploy underwater other than the US. Just coming up to speed on this, so would be happy to be educated.
Thanks for asking Kary. Here’s some info. I hope it’s helpful.
Modern nuclear submarines are built by the five permanent UN security council members only. The Brits and the Americans are between one and two generations ahead of the others. These are some of the most complicated machines on earth. The development of them cost trillions of dollars and required millions of engineering hours across every field of science. They are starting to assist other countries develop these skills, but even then it takes 25 to 50 years. It literally begins with building the engineering programs at the universities because you will need a minimum of 10,000 specialized graduates.
Diesel electric subs are great tools if you can build or buy them. They are small, typically between 2-3.5k tons. Endurance is ~6 weeks. They are primarily used as ambush weapons. They hide, they loiter in choke points and patrol commercial waterways. This is why the German 212 is perfect for the small Baltic sea. They are slow. Depending on sub, they can patrol quietly at 4-8 knots. They can turn on the loud diesel engines to temporarily sprint to 20 knots, but then the sub will need to snorkel for oxygen. A tiny submarine snorkel can be detected from hundreds of miles away. This makes them incredibly vulnerable but also defeats half the purpose. It’s not just the damage you can do to your opponent, it’s about keeping them guessing where your submarines are.
The AUKUS subs Australia will be building (not buying!!) will be the most dangerous naval platform on earth. At 10k tons, they are 4x larger than German 212’s. Endurance is unlimited; food and crew is usually refreshed at 90 days, but has been double that in emergencies. These boats can perpetually travel at 35 knots. They never refuel, they never need to surface. They can dive substantially deeper, which allows them to play with multiple thermoclines. This gives them tremendous advantages in stealth. They will be able to maintain perfect navigation without GPS, unlike other subs which perpetually drift until they reconnect. They have incredible reconnaissance technologies including the ability to intercept and decrypt cellular calls and they can deploy UUV’s to tap underwater fiber optic cables. Their sonar capabilities extend 4-5x other subs. A single boat carries both VLS and a huge number of heavyweight spearfish torpedoes. Two of these subs will wreck an enemy fleet and because they are much faster, they can circle like a shark or continuously sprint ahead and reengage.
The subs will be modern marvels, but the miracle is Australia building them.
When I was a small child, my uncle was stationed in Churchill. There wasn’t much up there at the time aside from Inuit settlements and military; all these years later were talking about a substantial port. Pretty amazing. Thanks for this piece Shankar. I know South Korea was in the mix for this contract, but it makes good sense to standardize with other NATO nations.
Presumably "I hit" should be "Inuit" settlements. Obvious typo to anyone who has been there, but not necessarily an intuitive leap for many.
Yes, thanks for the edit. I’m notorious for not proofreading my messages.
I skim comments, Lois Levenstone. My takeaway from yours? "I'm notorious"
I’ve sent my kids some true gems over the years
Brilliant thinking!
I am sure a Carney staffer is reading you!
I really, really would love to be part of planning use and development of Churchill. The most exciting time in my career was working on infrastructure and logistics planning for the Naval Station Norfolk. The last couple of times I visited I saw projects we worked on being built. Intermodal, piers, ports (dredging to new depths). Just a huge puzzle and I love very little more that I love a puzzle.
L
Sea zwölf — great news always comes with annoying puns 😁